Today is Sunday February 13, and Pitchers and Catchers have started reporting to Spring Training. Brewers P/C don't need to officially report until Wednesday February 16th, although most if not all of them will be there before that date. Since baseball season is underway (in my opinion at least) you would think that I would be talking about the 2011 season. Oh no my friends. I have some unfinished business that for whatever reason I didn't get around to doing in the offseason. Back in October of 2010 I posted my overall review of the Brewers Season, where I recapped their record and a couple of predictions that I made before the season. I wanted to keep the Brewers fever going during the cold winter months, and although it never truly leaves me, the Green Bay Packers and Milwaukee Bucks stole some of the thunder this winter. Obviously you now know that the Packers won the Superbowl and were the focal point of Wisconsin sports talk for the majority of the offseason. And what about the Bucks? They're currently 10 or so games under .500 and desperately trying to grab hold of the 8th playoff spot. So this season is basically a wash. But enough about the Packers and Bucks. I came here to talk Brewers, and specifically the 2010 season that was another on the long list of disappointing Brewers seasons. If you've been following along with this blog then you will know that I did a 2010 preview entitled "25 Brewers in 25 Days" using the 25 days prior to Spring Training to predict the players on the Opening Day roster as well as to provide my prediction on their 2010 stats. Now that the 2010 season is over (as it has been for the last 4 months) I am able to compare my preseason stat predictions with their final 2010 stat line and provide a brief commentary on their overall season. This section focuses on the 13 offensive players that I had profiled. My early predictions are highlighted in red and their actual stats are highlighted in green. I'm sorry that it took so long for me to write this because comparing my stat line with the actual ones was one of the things that I was most looking forward to doing once the 2010 season ended. You've already waited 4 months for this, so I won't make you wait any longer.
1st Base - Prince Fielder 2010 prediction: .305 avg, .405 obp, 42 HRs, 136 RBIs, 105 walks. He will once again make the NL All-Star team and will finish in the top 3 of the NL MVP voting.
2010 actual stats: .261 avg, .401 obp, 32 HRs, 83 RBIs, 114 walks.
Prince Fielder had one hell of a down year. Most players would take 32 HRs and 83 RBIs any year and consider it a good year. But Fielder is not most players. In fact he is better than most players. These are his lowest numbers since his 1st full season in 2006. What makes it worse is that in 2009 he had an NL high 141 RBIs. Maybe pitchers were throwing around him (leading to an NL high 114 walks) and he had to be more selective at the plate. Maybe his upcoming free agency (after the 2011 season) and the possibility of being traded was worrying him. Maybe he was trying to shoulder too much of the load to make up for another woeful pitching staff. Maybe he just had a bad year. Whatever the case may be, Fielder just flat out didn't do his job in 2010. The majority of his homeruns were solo shots and his strikeout numbers increased. His overall attitude seemed to have changed as well. Call it Grandpa Macha not letting the kids have fun or being on the losing end of games too often, but Fielder just wasn't himself. In 2011 he is entering a contract year, and I look forward to a more Fielder-like year for the big man.
2nd Base - Rickie Weeks 2010 prediction: .280 avg, .345 obp, 18 HRs, 61 RBIs, 101 runs scored, 29 stolen bases. He will also make the NL All-Star team. And because everyone is suspect of his defense, I am predicting that he has fewer than 13 errors.
2010 actual stats: .269 avg, .366 obp, 29 HRs, 83 RBIs, 112 runs scored, 11 stolen bases, 15 errors. Weeks was not selected by the fans or players to be on the NL All-Star Team.
I've been a huge Weeks supporter for years now, and in 2010 he showed what he can do when he stays healthy for an entire season. Weeks was statistically the best leadoff hitter in all of the MLB and my mouth salivates thinking what he could do if he was batting 3rd or 5th in the lineup. But he was so damn good right there at the top that you can't possible move him now. You can see by my stat predictions that I had him having a good year, but he went on to have a great year. As for not making the All Star Team I think that he was obviously snubbed, but thinking back to the first half of the year I remember that he started out alright but by the time he really heated up and started putting up big power numbers, it was too little too late to be recognized for his efforts. When all was said and done Weeks played in a career high 159 games and his stats are a reflection of him staying healthy and producing like the player he was supposed to be when he was selected with the #2 overall pick in the 2003 draft. His stolen base numbers were not reflective of his ability to get on base, but as you will see with all of the players where I predicted stolen base totals, everyone came out on the low end. This was not the player's fault, but rather Macha's philosophy about stealing bases and being aggressive on the base paths. Weeks is a free agent after the 2011 season, and I'm all for offering him a contract extension for a couple more years. We'll see what happens in the next few days, but Weeks is the new ignitor and is crucial to the Brewers offense in 2011. You're my boy Rickie!!
Shortstop - Alcides Escobar 2010 prediction: .310 batting average, 75 runs scored, 25 stolen bases and highlight reel defense. The second that he turns a slick "how did he do that?" play that he is well known for, the crowd and voting public will rally in his favor.
2010 actual stats: .235 avg, 57 runs scored, 10 stolen bases, 20 errors but he still had multiple SportsCenter Top 10 defensive plays.
Here is the first of many apologies that I have to make on my 2010 predictions. Even though I could honestly tell you how the players will produce in any given year, I like to set some lofty goals. You can call it "drinking the Kool-Aid" and having blind loyalty to your team or a certain player, but I set high goals because I want to see them reach them. I was really high on Alcides Escobar. I even gave him the nickname "The Wonderkid." Every player is going to have some ups and down during their rookie year, but Escobar mostly had downs. At times he looked lost at the plate and on the field and some questioned whether he was brought up to the Majors too soon (like Rickie Weeks) and that we should have held on to JJ Hardy for another year. Replacing Hardy on and off the field (the ladies sure did love him) was a tall task, and most people in Milwaukee didn't even give him a chance. And for the haters out there they won't have the opportunity to give him another chance as he was one of the players sent to Kansas City in exchange for Zack Greinke. I believe he will have a good year offensively and defensively, but unfortunately I will be seeing his slick Web Gem plays only on SportsCenter, and he'll be wearing a Royals jersey. Time will tell on Escobar, but giving up prospects is a small price to pay for getting a former Cy Young winner and establishing a winning mentality.
3rd base - Casey McGehee 2010 prediction: .278 batting average, 18 HRs, 75 RBIs and solid defense at the hot corner. His batting average will probably fall off a bit due to the pitchers having better scouting reports on him, but his HR and RBI numbers will remain the same due to the people in front of him staying productive.
2010 actual stats: .285 avg, 23 HRs, 104 RBIs, 17 errors
You always worry about how a player will perform the year after a breakout season. I scaled my expectations down a little bit not because I didn't believe in Casey McGehee, but because I wanted to give him a little breathing room should he fall short. Kind of the opposite thing I did with Escobar, right? McGehee proved that he belongs in the Major Leagues after toiling in the Cubs Minor League system for years and being claimed off waivers by the Brewers. Where Ryan Braun and Mat Gamel have failed as the long-term 3rd basemen Casey McGehee has succeeded. We now have a big enough sample size to prove that. McGehee was in my opinion, the team MVP in 2010 and the only stable member in a lineup that saw everyone else go up and down more times than a marathon roller coaster rider. He did have 17 errors, but 3rd base is generally a position that sees a lot of mistakes. Just ask Braun (26 in 2007) and Gamel (an astonishing 53!! in 2007 at Single A Brevard County) about that. McGehee is under contract for a couple more years, so expect similar production from him in 2011.
Infield - Craig Counsell 2010 prediction: .280 avg, .351 OBP, 2 HRs, 33 RBIs, 110 games played, veteran leadership and still James' favorite player.
2010 actual stats: .250 avg, .322 obp, 2 HRs, 21 RBIs, 102 games played and James' former neighbor now that James lives in Columbia, South Carolina.
Craig Counsell is the glue that holds this team together. A player of his kind with the experience he brings is invaluable, so I hope that the Brewers hang on to him until the day he decides to retire. Counsell turned 40 last year but saw action in plenty of games thanks to his ability to have a productive at bat as a pinch hitter and his versatility on the field. Joe Inglett was the primary pinch hitter, but Counsell got his fair share of appearances in 2010. Weeks' health and McGehee's production kept them on the field for 159 and 157 games respectively, so Counsell saw most of his action at shortstop (42 games) when Escobar needed a mental break or played his way out of Macha's lineup. I was at the game in Washington D.C. when Counsell hit a grandslam to highlight a 10 run outburst in the 1st inning of that game. It's not often that he contributes to the runs in the box score like that, but what he brings cannot be displayed in a stat line. He has veteran leadership and 2 World Series rings, and will once again play a pivotal role for the 2011 Brewers. Besides upgrading the pitching staff (which they did with the additions of Greinke and Marcum0 I said that the most important thing the Brewers had to do was resign Craig Counsell. Done and done. 2011 is shaping up to be a good year.
Infield/Outfield - Joe Inglett 2010 prediction: .278 avg, 2 HRs, 33 RBIs and not on the roster for the entire 2010 season. I know I always try to say something wacky or funny at the end of the stat line, but since the Brewers bench is so lefty heavy eventually they're going to have to have a right handed batter sitting in the dugout. And unfortunately Inglett is the most likely candidate to be replaced. That is unless he proves that he doesn't deserve to be replaced.
2010 actual stats: .254 avg, 1 HR, 8 RBIs and spent the entire year on the Brewers 25 man roster.
Inglett was mostly used as a pinch hitter and excelled when called upon to do that, hitting for a .294 avg and led the Major League with 20 pinch hits. When he did get an occasional start (when it seemed everyone was banged up and Alcides Escobar was playing left field) he hit .197 and provided minimal offensive impact as far as runs scored (15 all year) and runs batted in. He was a decent option off the bench who who could play 2nd, 3rd, SS and the corner outfield positions if a starter was a late scratch or in a blowout. He's the kind of player who is the 25th man every year and only spends 1 year with the roster, like Tony Graffanino in 2007, Gabe Kapler in 2008 and Frank Catalanotto in 2009. Let's hope that Mark Kotsay in 2011 has the same kind of impact in 2011, which is not a sarcastic comment because all of the players listed did their job as a role player and positively impacted that season.
Catcher - Gregg Zaun 2010 prediction: .254 avg, 8 HRs, 41 RBIs and 101 games caught.
2010 actual stats: .265 avg, 2 HRs, 14 RBIs and 28 games caught.
Gregg Zaun was signed to mentor our young catching prospects and play the majority of the game for a year until someone like Jonathon Lucroy or Angel Salome was ready to catch on an everyday basis. I totally had forgotten about Zaun because he suffered a season ending shoulder injury in May and will not be on the roster in 2011. Zaun started out the 2010 season going hitless for a handful of games and was finally starting to show some offensive life when he got injured. Although you never want to see someone get hurt (except for people getting kicked in the balls and children falling down) it was a blessing in disguise as Lucroy was "thrown into the wolves" and ended up catching 75 games in his rookie year. That should give him enough experience to be the everyday catcher in 2011 and have another old guy (Wil Nieves) to mentor him like Zaun should have.
Catcher - George Kottaras 2010 prediction: .245 avg, 3 HRs, 18 RBIs, 52 games played and wondering why he's being interviewed by Telly Hughes and not some hot blonde.
2010 actual stats: .203 avg, 9 HRs, 26 RBIs, 67 games played and never interviewed by anyone, not even Craig Coshun. That's because Kottaras sucks.
I didn't really care for George Kottaras. In fact, the only reason that I liked him at all is because he was the butt of a lot of my jokes this season. I think it was Sparky on Sportsradio 1250 who said that his name sounded less like that of a baseball player and more like that of an accountant. So for the latter half of the season I always addressed him as my accountant George Kottaras when I spoke of him in person or on the Twitter, much like when I say to James your friend and former neighbor Craig Counsell when speaking of him. I guess Kottaras was a serviceable backup to Lucroy, even if he was in danger of batting his weight (185) for most of the season (insert rim shot after my other Kottaras joke). He did hit 9 home runs, but a .203 batting average just doesn't cut it in my book, even if you are hitting in the #8 spot. The backup catcher is one of the few positions open in Spring Training, so we'll see if Kottaras comes back for another year to do the Brewers taxes and maintain their financial records.
Outfield - Ryan Braun 2010 prediction: .317 avg, 35 HRs, 111 RBIs, 18 stolen bases, 188 hits, 2 new clothing lines launched and 1 new restaurant opened.
2010 actual stats: .304 avg, 25 HRs, 103 RBIs, 14 stolen bases, 188 hits
Ryan Braun is a very difficult player for me to comment on. I have grown a distaste for him and would not like him except for one thing - he plays for our team and he puts up fantastic numbers. So while he certainly put up numbers close to what I expected him to, he had a pretty rough 2010. He started off pretty hot, hitting .355 in April with 5 homeruns and 20 RBIs but in June he hit .264 and July a paltry .200, bringing his season average down to it's low point of .273 on July 30. You can blame the pitching staff and Trevor Hoffman blowing saves all you want for the lack of success in 2010, but some of that blame needs to fall on Braun and Fielder for not producing runs. The Milwaukee Brewers are built on offense and need to consistently put up 4-5 runs per game in order to finish with a winning record. At times Braun looked like he didn't care and wasn't giving 100% effort. He may have been hurt because after all he has missed time in the past due to oblique strains. Maybe his mind was on designing some new gay overpriced t-shirts. Or perhaps he was picking out new appetizer options for Ryan Braun's Waterfront Bar & Grill because the Clams Casino and Shrimp Scampini weren't selling well. Whatever it was something was affecting his play, and in July the went as he went, and we were out of the pennant race before it even started. Then all the sudden he got really hot and made his year look more like a Ryan Braun type season stat line. If only he gave 100% all year long we may not have had the same results. But then again, a stellar Braun doesn't make up for Doug Davis, Manny Parra and Dave Bush. No one man could. I don't need Braun to be amazing, I just need him to be consistently good all year long, not just when he feels like it.
Outfield - Carlos Gomez 2010 prediction: .240 avg, 4 HR, 38 RBIs, 65 runs scored, stellar defense and lose playing time to Jim Edmonds and Jody Gerut as the season goes on.
2010 actual stats: .247 avg, 5 HR, 24 RBIs, 38 runs scored, 5 errors, 97 games played, .298 obp
Gomez came to Milwaukee as a defensive stud with an powerful yet inaccurate arm with tons of speed and potential, but he had one problem - he couldn't get on base to take advantage of his speed. And Carlos Gomez was exactly as advertised. In the "25 in 25" entry I likened him to Willie Mays Hayes in Major League and it was just that - he hit the ball in the air too much instead of putting it on the ground and trying to leg out a base hit. And he also struck out a good amount (72 times in 97 games) with helped with his on base percentage of .298 which is unacceptable for anyone on the team, let alone one with blazing speed. When he did get on base he was a nightmare for the defense and would often end up at 3rd after the throw to 2nd on a stolen base attempt wound up in the outfield. He was really fun to watch circle the bases or cover ground in the outfield so much to the point that I gave him the nickname "Go-go-go-Gomez." But my predicitons were pretty spot on and he eventually lost playing time to Jim Edmonds, Chris Dickerson and later Lorenzo Cain. Those players will not be on the 2011 roster (Edmonds was traded midseason, Dickerson just sucks and shouldn't make the roster and Cain was part of the package that brought Greinke to Milwaukee) so Gomez comes into the season set to start in centerfield. This is a make or break season for Gomez, because if he doesn't work out, the Brewers need to find someone who will.
Outfield - Corey Hart 2010 prediction: (my friend Mike's prediction) .285 batting average, 26HRs, 83 RBIs and 23 stolen bases. (My prediction) .267 avg, 16 HRs, 66 RBIs, 18 stolen bases and even more goofy looking now that he’s wearing goggles. I have a feeling that like Carlos Gomez, Corey Hart may also lose playing time to Jim Edmonds and Jody Gerut if he doesn’t improve from last year. But since he is at the core a very good baseball player, he will get every opportunity to succeed.
2010 actual stats: .283 avg, 31 HRs, 102 RBIs, 7 stolen bases, 145 games played
I've been holding off on writing this segment because I was totally wrong on Corey Hart. It pains me to admit it, but I underestimated his performance in 2010. I sound like a broken record, but for as many times that I knock him down, I always want him to succeed to prove me wrong. For players like Rickie Weeks and Acides Escobar I hold them to high expectations because I do expect a lot out of them. For Hart I set the bar low because then anything above that is a bonus. And Hart certainly quieted all the doubters and naysayers by putting up career numbers and earning the $4.8 million dollars that he got in arbitration. Hart also made the NL All-Star team and was the starting right fielder, so I bet a lot of other people were eating their words by midseason. Hart was rewarded for his fine play in 2010 with a 3 year contract extension, so I will have no choice but to cheer him on for the remainder of his days in a Brewers uniform. Did I mean all of those nasty things I said about him? Yeah. Do I regret saying them? Nope. Will I cheer for Corey Hart? Yeah. Do I still dislike him for all of the times he burned me in the past? Yeah. Am I willing to give him another chance? Yeah. Is he still a bitch? Hell yeah. I'm done talking about Corey Hart because I know that this is a neverending story that will see its fair share of happy and sad passages. Before I leave you let me once again state that I wish for nothing but success for Corey Hart in 2011, because if he does well then the team does well. And at the end of the day what the players as individuals do doesn't matter because the overall performance of the team is what shows up in the W column. But screw Corey Hart. Nobody makes me look like an asshole. NOBODY!!
Outfield - Jim Edmonds 2010 prediction: .261 avg, 17 HRs, 52 RBIs and a handful a highlight reel plays that will shoot him to the top of SportsCenter's Top 10 plays of the day.
2010 actual stats: .286 avg, 8 HRs, 20 RBIs, 73 games played
I was shocked when the Brewers signed Jim Edmonds but I knew that he would find his way into the lineup. Gomez had the indications of an underperforming season and Corey Hart didn't necessarily light the world on fire in 2009. In fact, Edmonds started on Opening Day in right field and was on the All-Star ballot. Edmonds got a fair amount of playing time and looked like the Edmonds of old who has won 8 Gold Gloves in his career. It was spectacular to watch a natural centerfielder who made plays look easy and took great routes on balls in the outfield. It reminded me of (and made me miss when we had) Mike Cameron. Hopefully he was able to work with Braun and Hart (who are both converted infielders) on their outfield defense in the short time he was here. Towards the end of his time in Milwaukee Edmonds was hampered by injuries and was traded to the Cincinnati Reds when we had fallen out of (but to be truthful we were never really in it) playoff contention. Both of those led to him falling short of my predictions, but if we were in the hunt for October I have no doubt he would have been a huge factor.
Outfield - Jody Gerut 2010 prediction: .256 avg, 9 HRs, 43 RBIs, semi-regular playing time and still having a girl's name, despite the fact that I have met guys named Jody.
2010 actual stats: .197 avg, 2 HRs, 8 RBIs, 32 games played and he still has a girl's name despite what babynames.com says (when Jody was the 153rd most popular name in 1970).
Jody Gerut opened the season as the 5th outfielder and saw little playing time during the season. He failed whenever he was in the lineup or when he was called upon to pinch hit. The only thing that he did in 2010 was replace Chad Moeller in the trivia question "Who was the last Brewers player to hit for the cycle?" That's right ladies and gents. Some chick masquerading as a dude went 4-6 with a single, double, triple and a homerun in a 17-3 blowout victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Then on August 13 he was released by the Brewers in a long overdue move that ended the horrible trade the sent Tony Gwynn back home to San Diego. Good riddance.
Well that covers the offense players that I profiled in my "25 in 25" blog posts. Notably absent are contributions from rookies Jonathon Lucroy and Lorenzo Cain, who didn't start the season on the 25 man roster. As mentioned, both saw playing time at some point in the season due to injury (Lucroy for Zaun) and ineffective play (Cain for Gomez) and only one of them will be profiled in the 2011 "25 Brewers in 25 Days" that I plan on writing. So while the pitching staff proved to be a revolving door for both the starters and relievers, the offense was mostly in tact for the majority of the year and mostly performed up to my expectations. The offense hasn't been the problem in the Fielder/Braun era so that only leads the finger to be pointed at the other half of the team - the pitchers. The Brewers pitchers had something like the 2nd worst ERA among Major League teams in 2010, which is why they gave up the farm for Greinke and Marcum. But before we can talk about and predict the 2011 pitching staff, we must first reflect on the gang of 2010 that once again failed so miserably and led to the Brewers finishing under .500 for a second consecutive season. But that my friends is a topic that will be covered in a few days. Brewers, Brewers, Keep Turning Up the Heat!
- pookon -
www.pookon.com
email: pookondotcom@gmail.com
2010 actual stats: .261 avg, .401 obp, 32 HRs, 83 RBIs, 114 walks.
Prince Fielder had one hell of a down year. Most players would take 32 HRs and 83 RBIs any year and consider it a good year. But Fielder is not most players. In fact he is better than most players. These are his lowest numbers since his 1st full season in 2006. What makes it worse is that in 2009 he had an NL high 141 RBIs. Maybe pitchers were throwing around him (leading to an NL high 114 walks) and he had to be more selective at the plate. Maybe his upcoming free agency (after the 2011 season) and the possibility of being traded was worrying him. Maybe he was trying to shoulder too much of the load to make up for another woeful pitching staff. Maybe he just had a bad year. Whatever the case may be, Fielder just flat out didn't do his job in 2010. The majority of his homeruns were solo shots and his strikeout numbers increased. His overall attitude seemed to have changed as well. Call it Grandpa Macha not letting the kids have fun or being on the losing end of games too often, but Fielder just wasn't himself. In 2011 he is entering a contract year, and I look forward to a more Fielder-like year for the big man.
2nd Base - Rickie Weeks 2010 prediction: .280 avg, .345 obp, 18 HRs, 61 RBIs, 101 runs scored, 29 stolen bases. He will also make the NL All-Star team. And because everyone is suspect of his defense, I am predicting that he has fewer than 13 errors.
2010 actual stats: .269 avg, .366 obp, 29 HRs, 83 RBIs, 112 runs scored, 11 stolen bases, 15 errors. Weeks was not selected by the fans or players to be on the NL All-Star Team.
I've been a huge Weeks supporter for years now, and in 2010 he showed what he can do when he stays healthy for an entire season. Weeks was statistically the best leadoff hitter in all of the MLB and my mouth salivates thinking what he could do if he was batting 3rd or 5th in the lineup. But he was so damn good right there at the top that you can't possible move him now. You can see by my stat predictions that I had him having a good year, but he went on to have a great year. As for not making the All Star Team I think that he was obviously snubbed, but thinking back to the first half of the year I remember that he started out alright but by the time he really heated up and started putting up big power numbers, it was too little too late to be recognized for his efforts. When all was said and done Weeks played in a career high 159 games and his stats are a reflection of him staying healthy and producing like the player he was supposed to be when he was selected with the #2 overall pick in the 2003 draft. His stolen base numbers were not reflective of his ability to get on base, but as you will see with all of the players where I predicted stolen base totals, everyone came out on the low end. This was not the player's fault, but rather Macha's philosophy about stealing bases and being aggressive on the base paths. Weeks is a free agent after the 2011 season, and I'm all for offering him a contract extension for a couple more years. We'll see what happens in the next few days, but Weeks is the new ignitor and is crucial to the Brewers offense in 2011. You're my boy Rickie!!
Shortstop - Alcides Escobar 2010 prediction: .310 batting average, 75 runs scored, 25 stolen bases and highlight reel defense. The second that he turns a slick "how did he do that?" play that he is well known for, the crowd and voting public will rally in his favor.
2010 actual stats: .235 avg, 57 runs scored, 10 stolen bases, 20 errors but he still had multiple SportsCenter Top 10 defensive plays.
Here is the first of many apologies that I have to make on my 2010 predictions. Even though I could honestly tell you how the players will produce in any given year, I like to set some lofty goals. You can call it "drinking the Kool-Aid" and having blind loyalty to your team or a certain player, but I set high goals because I want to see them reach them. I was really high on Alcides Escobar. I even gave him the nickname "The Wonderkid." Every player is going to have some ups and down during their rookie year, but Escobar mostly had downs. At times he looked lost at the plate and on the field and some questioned whether he was brought up to the Majors too soon (like Rickie Weeks) and that we should have held on to JJ Hardy for another year. Replacing Hardy on and off the field (the ladies sure did love him) was a tall task, and most people in Milwaukee didn't even give him a chance. And for the haters out there they won't have the opportunity to give him another chance as he was one of the players sent to Kansas City in exchange for Zack Greinke. I believe he will have a good year offensively and defensively, but unfortunately I will be seeing his slick Web Gem plays only on SportsCenter, and he'll be wearing a Royals jersey. Time will tell on Escobar, but giving up prospects is a small price to pay for getting a former Cy Young winner and establishing a winning mentality.
3rd base - Casey McGehee 2010 prediction: .278 batting average, 18 HRs, 75 RBIs and solid defense at the hot corner. His batting average will probably fall off a bit due to the pitchers having better scouting reports on him, but his HR and RBI numbers will remain the same due to the people in front of him staying productive.
2010 actual stats: .285 avg, 23 HRs, 104 RBIs, 17 errors
You always worry about how a player will perform the year after a breakout season. I scaled my expectations down a little bit not because I didn't believe in Casey McGehee, but because I wanted to give him a little breathing room should he fall short. Kind of the opposite thing I did with Escobar, right? McGehee proved that he belongs in the Major Leagues after toiling in the Cubs Minor League system for years and being claimed off waivers by the Brewers. Where Ryan Braun and Mat Gamel have failed as the long-term 3rd basemen Casey McGehee has succeeded. We now have a big enough sample size to prove that. McGehee was in my opinion, the team MVP in 2010 and the only stable member in a lineup that saw everyone else go up and down more times than a marathon roller coaster rider. He did have 17 errors, but 3rd base is generally a position that sees a lot of mistakes. Just ask Braun (26 in 2007) and Gamel (an astonishing 53!! in 2007 at Single A Brevard County) about that. McGehee is under contract for a couple more years, so expect similar production from him in 2011.
Infield - Craig Counsell 2010 prediction: .280 avg, .351 OBP, 2 HRs, 33 RBIs, 110 games played, veteran leadership and still James' favorite player.
2010 actual stats: .250 avg, .322 obp, 2 HRs, 21 RBIs, 102 games played and James' former neighbor now that James lives in Columbia, South Carolina.
Craig Counsell is the glue that holds this team together. A player of his kind with the experience he brings is invaluable, so I hope that the Brewers hang on to him until the day he decides to retire. Counsell turned 40 last year but saw action in plenty of games thanks to his ability to have a productive at bat as a pinch hitter and his versatility on the field. Joe Inglett was the primary pinch hitter, but Counsell got his fair share of appearances in 2010. Weeks' health and McGehee's production kept them on the field for 159 and 157 games respectively, so Counsell saw most of his action at shortstop (42 games) when Escobar needed a mental break or played his way out of Macha's lineup. I was at the game in Washington D.C. when Counsell hit a grandslam to highlight a 10 run outburst in the 1st inning of that game. It's not often that he contributes to the runs in the box score like that, but what he brings cannot be displayed in a stat line. He has veteran leadership and 2 World Series rings, and will once again play a pivotal role for the 2011 Brewers. Besides upgrading the pitching staff (which they did with the additions of Greinke and Marcum0 I said that the most important thing the Brewers had to do was resign Craig Counsell. Done and done. 2011 is shaping up to be a good year.
Infield/Outfield - Joe Inglett 2010 prediction: .278 avg, 2 HRs, 33 RBIs and not on the roster for the entire 2010 season. I know I always try to say something wacky or funny at the end of the stat line, but since the Brewers bench is so lefty heavy eventually they're going to have to have a right handed batter sitting in the dugout. And unfortunately Inglett is the most likely candidate to be replaced. That is unless he proves that he doesn't deserve to be replaced.
2010 actual stats: .254 avg, 1 HR, 8 RBIs and spent the entire year on the Brewers 25 man roster.
Inglett was mostly used as a pinch hitter and excelled when called upon to do that, hitting for a .294 avg and led the Major League with 20 pinch hits. When he did get an occasional start (when it seemed everyone was banged up and Alcides Escobar was playing left field) he hit .197 and provided minimal offensive impact as far as runs scored (15 all year) and runs batted in. He was a decent option off the bench who who could play 2nd, 3rd, SS and the corner outfield positions if a starter was a late scratch or in a blowout. He's the kind of player who is the 25th man every year and only spends 1 year with the roster, like Tony Graffanino in 2007, Gabe Kapler in 2008 and Frank Catalanotto in 2009. Let's hope that Mark Kotsay in 2011 has the same kind of impact in 2011, which is not a sarcastic comment because all of the players listed did their job as a role player and positively impacted that season.
Catcher - Gregg Zaun 2010 prediction: .254 avg, 8 HRs, 41 RBIs and 101 games caught.
2010 actual stats: .265 avg, 2 HRs, 14 RBIs and 28 games caught.
Gregg Zaun was signed to mentor our young catching prospects and play the majority of the game for a year until someone like Jonathon Lucroy or Angel Salome was ready to catch on an everyday basis. I totally had forgotten about Zaun because he suffered a season ending shoulder injury in May and will not be on the roster in 2011. Zaun started out the 2010 season going hitless for a handful of games and was finally starting to show some offensive life when he got injured. Although you never want to see someone get hurt (except for people getting kicked in the balls and children falling down) it was a blessing in disguise as Lucroy was "thrown into the wolves" and ended up catching 75 games in his rookie year. That should give him enough experience to be the everyday catcher in 2011 and have another old guy (Wil Nieves) to mentor him like Zaun should have.
Catcher - George Kottaras 2010 prediction: .245 avg, 3 HRs, 18 RBIs, 52 games played and wondering why he's being interviewed by Telly Hughes and not some hot blonde.
2010 actual stats: .203 avg, 9 HRs, 26 RBIs, 67 games played and never interviewed by anyone, not even Craig Coshun. That's because Kottaras sucks.
I didn't really care for George Kottaras. In fact, the only reason that I liked him at all is because he was the butt of a lot of my jokes this season. I think it was Sparky on Sportsradio 1250 who said that his name sounded less like that of a baseball player and more like that of an accountant. So for the latter half of the season I always addressed him as my accountant George Kottaras when I spoke of him in person or on the Twitter, much like when I say to James your friend and former neighbor Craig Counsell when speaking of him. I guess Kottaras was a serviceable backup to Lucroy, even if he was in danger of batting his weight (185) for most of the season (insert rim shot after my other Kottaras joke). He did hit 9 home runs, but a .203 batting average just doesn't cut it in my book, even if you are hitting in the #8 spot. The backup catcher is one of the few positions open in Spring Training, so we'll see if Kottaras comes back for another year to do the Brewers taxes and maintain their financial records.
Outfield - Ryan Braun 2010 prediction: .317 avg, 35 HRs, 111 RBIs, 18 stolen bases, 188 hits, 2 new clothing lines launched and 1 new restaurant opened.
2010 actual stats: .304 avg, 25 HRs, 103 RBIs, 14 stolen bases, 188 hits
Ryan Braun is a very difficult player for me to comment on. I have grown a distaste for him and would not like him except for one thing - he plays for our team and he puts up fantastic numbers. So while he certainly put up numbers close to what I expected him to, he had a pretty rough 2010. He started off pretty hot, hitting .355 in April with 5 homeruns and 20 RBIs but in June he hit .264 and July a paltry .200, bringing his season average down to it's low point of .273 on July 30. You can blame the pitching staff and Trevor Hoffman blowing saves all you want for the lack of success in 2010, but some of that blame needs to fall on Braun and Fielder for not producing runs. The Milwaukee Brewers are built on offense and need to consistently put up 4-5 runs per game in order to finish with a winning record. At times Braun looked like he didn't care and wasn't giving 100% effort. He may have been hurt because after all he has missed time in the past due to oblique strains. Maybe his mind was on designing some new gay overpriced t-shirts. Or perhaps he was picking out new appetizer options for Ryan Braun's Waterfront Bar & Grill because the Clams Casino and Shrimp Scampini weren't selling well. Whatever it was something was affecting his play, and in July the went as he went, and we were out of the pennant race before it even started. Then all the sudden he got really hot and made his year look more like a Ryan Braun type season stat line. If only he gave 100% all year long we may not have had the same results. But then again, a stellar Braun doesn't make up for Doug Davis, Manny Parra and Dave Bush. No one man could. I don't need Braun to be amazing, I just need him to be consistently good all year long, not just when he feels like it.
Outfield - Carlos Gomez 2010 prediction: .240 avg, 4 HR, 38 RBIs, 65 runs scored, stellar defense and lose playing time to Jim Edmonds and Jody Gerut as the season goes on.
2010 actual stats: .247 avg, 5 HR, 24 RBIs, 38 runs scored, 5 errors, 97 games played, .298 obp
Gomez came to Milwaukee as a defensive stud with an powerful yet inaccurate arm with tons of speed and potential, but he had one problem - he couldn't get on base to take advantage of his speed. And Carlos Gomez was exactly as advertised. In the "25 in 25" entry I likened him to Willie Mays Hayes in Major League and it was just that - he hit the ball in the air too much instead of putting it on the ground and trying to leg out a base hit. And he also struck out a good amount (72 times in 97 games) with helped with his on base percentage of .298 which is unacceptable for anyone on the team, let alone one with blazing speed. When he did get on base he was a nightmare for the defense and would often end up at 3rd after the throw to 2nd on a stolen base attempt wound up in the outfield. He was really fun to watch circle the bases or cover ground in the outfield so much to the point that I gave him the nickname "Go-go-go-Gomez." But my predicitons were pretty spot on and he eventually lost playing time to Jim Edmonds, Chris Dickerson and later Lorenzo Cain. Those players will not be on the 2011 roster (Edmonds was traded midseason, Dickerson just sucks and shouldn't make the roster and Cain was part of the package that brought Greinke to Milwaukee) so Gomez comes into the season set to start in centerfield. This is a make or break season for Gomez, because if he doesn't work out, the Brewers need to find someone who will.
Outfield - Corey Hart 2010 prediction: (my friend Mike's prediction) .285 batting average, 26HRs, 83 RBIs and 23 stolen bases. (My prediction) .267 avg, 16 HRs, 66 RBIs, 18 stolen bases and even more goofy looking now that he’s wearing goggles. I have a feeling that like Carlos Gomez, Corey Hart may also lose playing time to Jim Edmonds and Jody Gerut if he doesn’t improve from last year. But since he is at the core a very good baseball player, he will get every opportunity to succeed.
2010 actual stats: .283 avg, 31 HRs, 102 RBIs, 7 stolen bases, 145 games played
I've been holding off on writing this segment because I was totally wrong on Corey Hart. It pains me to admit it, but I underestimated his performance in 2010. I sound like a broken record, but for as many times that I knock him down, I always want him to succeed to prove me wrong. For players like Rickie Weeks and Acides Escobar I hold them to high expectations because I do expect a lot out of them. For Hart I set the bar low because then anything above that is a bonus. And Hart certainly quieted all the doubters and naysayers by putting up career numbers and earning the $4.8 million dollars that he got in arbitration. Hart also made the NL All-Star team and was the starting right fielder, so I bet a lot of other people were eating their words by midseason. Hart was rewarded for his fine play in 2010 with a 3 year contract extension, so I will have no choice but to cheer him on for the remainder of his days in a Brewers uniform. Did I mean all of those nasty things I said about him? Yeah. Do I regret saying them? Nope. Will I cheer for Corey Hart? Yeah. Do I still dislike him for all of the times he burned me in the past? Yeah. Am I willing to give him another chance? Yeah. Is he still a bitch? Hell yeah. I'm done talking about Corey Hart because I know that this is a neverending story that will see its fair share of happy and sad passages. Before I leave you let me once again state that I wish for nothing but success for Corey Hart in 2011, because if he does well then the team does well. And at the end of the day what the players as individuals do doesn't matter because the overall performance of the team is what shows up in the W column. But screw Corey Hart. Nobody makes me look like an asshole. NOBODY!!
Outfield - Jim Edmonds 2010 prediction: .261 avg, 17 HRs, 52 RBIs and a handful a highlight reel plays that will shoot him to the top of SportsCenter's Top 10 plays of the day.
2010 actual stats: .286 avg, 8 HRs, 20 RBIs, 73 games played
I was shocked when the Brewers signed Jim Edmonds but I knew that he would find his way into the lineup. Gomez had the indications of an underperforming season and Corey Hart didn't necessarily light the world on fire in 2009. In fact, Edmonds started on Opening Day in right field and was on the All-Star ballot. Edmonds got a fair amount of playing time and looked like the Edmonds of old who has won 8 Gold Gloves in his career. It was spectacular to watch a natural centerfielder who made plays look easy and took great routes on balls in the outfield. It reminded me of (and made me miss when we had) Mike Cameron. Hopefully he was able to work with Braun and Hart (who are both converted infielders) on their outfield defense in the short time he was here. Towards the end of his time in Milwaukee Edmonds was hampered by injuries and was traded to the Cincinnati Reds when we had fallen out of (but to be truthful we were never really in it) playoff contention. Both of those led to him falling short of my predictions, but if we were in the hunt for October I have no doubt he would have been a huge factor.
Outfield - Jody Gerut 2010 prediction: .256 avg, 9 HRs, 43 RBIs, semi-regular playing time and still having a girl's name, despite the fact that I have met guys named Jody.
2010 actual stats: .197 avg, 2 HRs, 8 RBIs, 32 games played and he still has a girl's name despite what babynames.com says (when Jody was the 153rd most popular name in 1970).
Jody Gerut opened the season as the 5th outfielder and saw little playing time during the season. He failed whenever he was in the lineup or when he was called upon to pinch hit. The only thing that he did in 2010 was replace Chad Moeller in the trivia question "Who was the last Brewers player to hit for the cycle?" That's right ladies and gents. Some chick masquerading as a dude went 4-6 with a single, double, triple and a homerun in a 17-3 blowout victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Then on August 13 he was released by the Brewers in a long overdue move that ended the horrible trade the sent Tony Gwynn back home to San Diego. Good riddance.
Well that covers the offense players that I profiled in my "25 in 25" blog posts. Notably absent are contributions from rookies Jonathon Lucroy and Lorenzo Cain, who didn't start the season on the 25 man roster. As mentioned, both saw playing time at some point in the season due to injury (Lucroy for Zaun) and ineffective play (Cain for Gomez) and only one of them will be profiled in the 2011 "25 Brewers in 25 Days" that I plan on writing. So while the pitching staff proved to be a revolving door for both the starters and relievers, the offense was mostly in tact for the majority of the year and mostly performed up to my expectations. The offense hasn't been the problem in the Fielder/Braun era so that only leads the finger to be pointed at the other half of the team - the pitchers. The Brewers pitchers had something like the 2nd worst ERA among Major League teams in 2010, which is why they gave up the farm for Greinke and Marcum. But before we can talk about and predict the 2011 pitching staff, we must first reflect on the gang of 2010 that once again failed so miserably and led to the Brewers finishing under .500 for a second consecutive season. But that my friends is a topic that will be covered in a few days. Brewers, Brewers, Keep Turning Up the Heat!
- pookon -
www.pookon.com
email: pookondotcom@gmail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment