What a difference a week makes. I posted the article about the Outfield on March 19 and this article was supposed to be posted on March 24 so that the Bullpen article could be posted on March 29 in time for Opening Day on April 1st. But today isn't March 24. I am posting this article on March 28 because I was in Las Vegas from March 22-26 for a friend's wedding and didn't have enough time to write it before I skipped out of town for a few days of drinking, gambling, ogling dancing girls and strippers, being overly obnoxious (#victory) and basically having one of the more random weekends in recent memory. But what does that have to do with the Brewers Starting Rotation? A lot actually. You see, if I had posted this article when I intended your starting 5 would have been Gallardo, Estrada, Narveson, Peralta and Fiers with Mark Rogers in the bullpen as the long reliever. While I was certainly ready to roll with that rotation because I have a lot of faith in our "young" arms despite what their Spring Training stats showed, all of this changed when I woke up and started drinking on the morning of Monday March 25 - the Brewers had gone and did what everyone said they would and signed Kyle Lohse, even though I've been against it for the entire offseason. I'll get into him (clothes on without insertion, this is a family website) in just a minute, but even I have to admit that this move improves our team and gives us a better shot at competing for a playoff spot.
As you are well aware of, the Milwaukee Brewers have done a really good job at producing offensive players from a draft and develop standpoint. Guys like Braun, Weeks, Hart, Lucroy and Schafer have already impacted the team or will be a huge part of the team moving forward. But the pitching has always been years behind. For awhile it seemed like Yovani Gallardo was going to be their one shining example that they could indeed draft pitching. One pitcher an example does not make. When they were planning on going with Mike Fiers, Mark Rogers and Wily Peralta in the mix for the starting 5 that would give them a rotation of mostly homegrown pitchers with the exception of Chris Narveson (St. Louis Cardinals) and Marco Estrada (Washington Nationals). While this doesn't really matter (because I'd rather have the best 5 pitchers out there regardless of which team drafted them) it would have proven that we were able to draft well. But who cares about that, right? All we care about is winning. And while we certainly could have won with a couple of unproven rookies (it has been done before) the more I think about it, the better I feel with the way that this has shaken out in the past few days.
Fiers, Peralta and Rogers all did well last year when they were given the opportunity to prove themselves at the Major League level which is why GM Doug Melvin went into Spring Training with these guys penciled in instead of filling out the rotation via free agency or trades. And even though Spring Training stats don't mean jack shit in my book those pitchers certainly could have helped themselves out by pitching well in the 6 weeks down in Arizona if they wanted to make the Opening Day Roster. But the fact remains that they didn't, so Melvin had to do something about it because the offense and the bullpen is good enough to compete for a playoff spot. Although I do have my reservations (despite not being a Native American) about Kyle Lohse I can't help but agree with the signing - it had to be done. I do have the same fears about giving a 3-year contract to a 34-year old pitcher (and an ex-Cardinal at that) but it allows you to mix and match the best available starters while also maintaining some flexibility for the future. Mike Fiers may start the season in the bullpen or Wily Peralta might be in AAA and I won't be happy about either of them, but I'm just going to have to deal with it. I'm not the GM of the Milwaukee Brewers, and even though I have some ideas about what I would do if I had the job, I don't envy Doug Melvin at all. He's got a lot of difficult decisions to make and even though I would certainly welcome his salary so I could pull myself out of debt, it can't be an easy job. Although I would give anything to have a sweet flavor savor mustache like that. But I've wasted enough of your and my time with these first few paragraphs. It's time to ditch these puny finger-food hors d'oeuvres and get right on into the main course.
2013 Prediction: 19-10 record, 3.36 ERA, 33 starts, 212 innings pitched, 203 strikeouts, .214 batting average, 2 HRs, 10 RBIs and a one sided (because of the restraining order) bestest of best friendships where I wish he would give me a new nickname and we could have sleepovers.
For the first time in years I actually have something new to say about Yovani Gallardo. I've made it perfectly clear that he is my favorite pitcher of all time and the reason I have decided to convert to Mexican. If people can become a born-again Christian, I can become a born-again Mexican. If you think about it, it makes just as much sense. But that is something that I have addressed in the past. You came here for some new shit so I will deliver. A large package. In the rear. Like I said at the beginning of this article, a lot can change in a week. Had I written this a week earlier, I would not have had this really cool (at least to me) story. I was in Las Vegas last weekend and on Saturday night I was in Downtown playing slots at this little hole-in-the-wall casino called La Bayou that just happens to be my favorite gambling joint in all of Las Vegas. I was wearing a Brewers jersey like always and one of the casino workers approached me and asked if I was from Milwaukee. Before I get in the details of this story I do have to point out that this is how I remember it. I had a 24oz Jungle Juice slushie made with Everclear (with a extra shot of Everclear) and got so hammered I can hardly remember the night. But here is what I can recall.
This guy named 'Nacho' approached me and told me he was good friends with Gallardo and that he went to grade school and high school with him. He told me all about his family and about how down to Earth he really is and about how he took care of everyone. And even though he's a big league pitcher with millions of dollars he's more comfortable at a backyard barbecue with friends and family. He's 100% committed to the Brewers because they have been loyal to him every step of the way and he appreciates that. He was pitching well enough to be selected as a member of the 2011 NL All-Star Team in Arizona (he ultimately wouldn't be) but he was planning on boycotting it because of Arizona legislation that had to do with racial profiling of citizens having to provide documentation. So he stands up for what he believes in and is humble in all regards. I had already figured this because I can judge character pretty well (which is one of the reasons I have a problem with Ryan Braun) and this guy 'Nacho' pretty much reaffirmed why I love Gallardo so much. I'm sure there was more to this story but I was such a drunken asshole that I couldn't really pay attention. Story of my life man. Gallardo is only 27 years old and therefor entering the prime of his career. Seeing as he has already proven himself by winning 17 (2011) and 16 (2012) games and has had over 200 strikeouts in the last 4 years in 185 or more innings, he is only going to get better. That's scary, so expect to see a drop in ERA (he has a career ERA of 3.63) and increase in efficiency of innings pitched in the next few years. He'll never be considered an "Ace" like Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander, but he is definitely a #1 and in the 2nd tier of top pitchers. And if the Milwaukee Brewers want to have any success in 2013 they need Gallardo to be spectacular.
2013 Prediction: 15-8 record, 3.54 ERA, 32 starts, 203 innings pitched, 140 strikeouts and nowhere near as bad as Suppan but not as good as he was last year.
Kyle Lohse is not Jeff Suppan. He is not Randy Wolf. He is not Braden Looper. So we got that out of the way at the beginning so everyone can just calm the fuck down. But that having been said there are still a lot of red flags here. Why didn't anyone else sign him before the Brewers did at the end of Spring Training despite his 16-3 record with a 2.86 ERA, which was among the best in 2012? Teams should have been knocking down his door for a pitcher of that caliber But here are those red flags - he's 34 years old, has a career ERA of 4.45, would cost a 1st round draft pick, his agent is Scott Boras and he was a student of St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan who has been known to make miracles happen. I guess none of that bothered GM Doug Melvin (although this sticky situation has Owner Mark Attanasio's fingers all up in it) because he signed him to a 3 year deal worth $33 million. While I am 100% behind this signing because let's face it - we're better with Lohse than without him, it does worry me about the future. About how good he will be at age 35 and 36 and since some of his salary from this year was deferred to 2016, 2017 and 2018, the fact that we will still be paying him after he has left this team. But the future is what you make of it and it hasn't happened yet as Doc Brown would remind you. So there is no sense worrying about what will happen unless you take care of what is happening today. If Lohse is the final little push that it takes to get back to the playoffs then it is a win in my book as long as Attanasio maintains financial flexibility to add pieces at the trade deadline. So we are going to sink or swim with this contract but for the time being I'm going to think positively. And why not? There is always a renewed sense of optimism at the beginning of the season when you think that your team has a chance to win the World Series. You've probably noticed that I tend to be optimistic with my stat predictions on this site. That's because I'm not a negative nancy when it comes to the Brewers. When you start doing that shit you take all of the fun out of it. And since baseball is such a big part of my life I'd prefer to have fun with it. And fuck anyone else who says otherwise.
One of the things that Lohse can bring to this team is veteran leadership and some form of stability. Even though guys like Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun are close to turning 30, they still could stand to learn something from a guy that's been around a little longer. And not only that but he comes from the St. Louis Cardinals, an organization that has a winning attitude. It hurts me to say it but you don't exactly associate the Milwaukee Brewers with winning. Sure they did have some success in the early 80's and this run from 2007 - now has been really nice, but what about the other 30 years of this franchise? Losing. I'll happily welcome an outside voice to help this team break out of the funk. And if he mentors Peralta, Fiers, Estrada and even Gallardo then he's done a great job. This is a pitching staff chock full of potential and if they realize it then it is going to be one hell of a year. I'm not asking Lohse to go 16-3 with a sub 3 ERA again. That's ridiculous to ask him to repeat that. But I am going to expect more out of him than the other pitchers on this team because he has shown that he can do it. And if you do it once you can do it again, despite if people say it was a fluke. I'm a believer that anything can happen which is weird because I don't believe the same thing for myself. I don't believe in myself but I do believe in Harvey Dent. And in some weird way I also believe in Kyle Lohse despite all of the red flags. At first I was upset because I didn't want to see the Brewers make another mistake but I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens with this one. Fingers crossed that this multi-year contract is finally the one that works out in our favor. Please please please let it work out. I don't know if I can suffer another heartbreak. My body isn't suited for things like that and physical activity.
2013 Prediction: 9-13 record, 4.05 ERA, 30 starts, 165 innings pitched, 170 strikeouts and even if I was his bank I still wouldn't give him enough credit no matter how much equity he has gained through smart investments and an improved portfolio.
I never give Marco Estrada any credit and that's one thing that isn't going to change. Why? Because I'm a surly bastard who is set in his ways and I'm not changing shit. Roenicke and Melvin can throw out all the stats they want to support why Estrada belongs in the starting rotation (blah blah strikeouts to walk ratio blah blah, blah blah number of wins aren't a proper indicator of a pitcher's success blah blah) but I'm not buying it. Sure, those comments certainly do hold water but I'll give you the only thing that really matters here - Estrada is only in the starting rotation due to lack of other options. All of the other kids are either too inexperienced or injured so he gets a spot by default. Now it's up to him to prove that he deserves it. I'm willing to give him a chance at that. Everyone deserves a chance to do something just once in their life. I want a chance to prove to a woman that I can clean myself up and be a respectable husband and I won't be a worthless piece of shit for the rest of my life. If I get that chance then Estrada can have his. All that I ask is that he cut down on his number of pitches and try to pitch into the 6th or 7th innings and stop taxing the bullpen. Strikeouts are great and he racked up a lot of them last year (143 in 138 innings) but the stat that you can't look up is that he was often around 100 pitches in the 5th inning. That's a problem which directly contributed to him only winning 5 games despite making 23 starts. If he can figure out a way to be more efficient then I'm game with giving him some credit. Yeah, and if I can figure out a way to drop a couple hundred pounds then the ladies will give me some credit for being a decent guy. Like I said, some things never change. I wouldn't count on either of things happening in 2013. Estrada will continue to throw a ton of pitches, strikeout a lot of batters and win less than 10 games. And I'll continue to be a sad old bastard who sits at home alone on a Saturday night. But you never know. Stranger things have happened...
2013 Prediction: 4-5 record, 4.45 ERA, 15 starts mostly in the last few months, a difficult adjustment to the bullpen but still the scurviest scallywag on the team.
Chris Narveson is a big question mark. Well actually he is a homo sapien if you want to be a dick about it. He's going to be in the starting rotation because of past success and also because he's the only one who throws with his left arm. But the reason why he is labeled as a question mark is because of a shoulder injury that limited him to only 2 starts and 9 innings in 2012. While he appears to be fully healed it's going to be hard to expect 160 - 180 innings out of him this year and the chances are high that he will get shut down at some point. But while he is out there on the mound he will give you some quality innings and provide a different look than any of the other pitchers in the starting 5. As I've pointed out in the past, he's pretty good for your number 5 starter and will win 10-12 games with a reasonable ERA. He's nothing special but he will get the job done. He's had some success in the past few seasons and if he is fully healed from his shoulder surgery then there is no reason why he shouldn't be able to pitch well this year. Another thing about Chris is that he is wicked smart so I'm 100% percent behind him when he says he's good to go. What does intelligence have to do with anything? Because only a dumbass would risk the rest of their career by pitching hurt. At 31 years old (hey just like me!) he still has plenty of years left in the Major Leagues so you would think that he wouldn't return to pitching if everything wasn't ok in that arm. He above all people should understand the long term effects of injury if not treated properly. Or I could be completely wrong. He could be smart enough to know that players comes and go and you only have a small window to make that money and you can't get paid if you aren't pitching. I'm sure he's in the realm of 80-90% healed where it shouldn't be a problem but if he came back too early and gets hurt again this year I'm going to be pissed. He's one of the few experienced starters we have and I am really counting on him to provide some stability out on the mound. Or he could bail and live a life at sea and devote himself to piracy. Who knows. I guess we'll see what he chooses. He better chose wisely or else walk the plank. YEEEEEEEEARRRRRRGGGGGHHH!
Update 3/30/13: Manager Ron Roenicke revealed his plans for the starting rotation and it did NOT include Chris Narveson, who will begin the season in the bullpen. This came as a surprise to me because he is the only lefty starter and we already have two lefties (Gorzelanny and Gonzalez) in the bullpen. Although they say he is completely healthy, you have to wonder if they think otherwise and are just being careful with him at the beginning of the season to limit his innings. There are a lot of off days at the beginning of the season to accommodate rain-outs and the #5 starter often gets skipped. I'm sure they are just easing him into it. I'd expect to see him still get a good amount of starts this season because a team rarely goes through a season using only 5 pitchers in their starting rotation.
Update 3/30/13: Manager Ron Roenicke revealed his plans for the starting rotation and it did NOT include Chris Narveson, who will begin the season in the bullpen. This came as a surprise to me because he is the only lefty starter and we already have two lefties (Gorzelanny and Gonzalez) in the bullpen. Although they say he is completely healthy, you have to wonder if they think otherwise and are just being careful with him at the beginning of the season to limit his innings. There are a lot of off days at the beginning of the season to accommodate rain-outs and the #5 starter often gets skipped. I'm sure they are just easing him into it. I'd expect to see him still get a good amount of starts this season because a team rarely goes through a season using only 5 pitchers in their starting rotation.
2013 Prediction: 12-8 record, 3.53 ERA, 30 starts, 150 innings pitched, 145 strikeouts and the key that unlocks the starting rotation and also to... A NEW CAR!!!
There are 3 players that are the biggest keys for success in 2013. The most obvious one is Ryan Braun. If he gets suspended for even 50 games we're screwed because the offense will suffer big time without him. The other obvious one is John Axford. If he is in 2011 form then we'll be alright. But if he is in 2012 form then there's going to be a huge problem. The 3rd key to the puzzle is Wily Peralta. His Minor League stats don't exactly jump off of the paper (33-35, 3.99 ERA with 589 strikeouts in 620 innings) but I can assure you that he is better than he looks on paper. Oh you assure me? Even though this doesn't involve me dressing up as Little Bo Peep I will figure out a way to convince you of how important he is. But for right now all I can do is ask you to watch him pitch. There's something called the "eye test" in baseball where the only way to make a proper judgement is by seeing it with your own eyes instead of listening to other people's opinions or looking at a stat sheet. Peralta is that kind of guy suited for an eye test. I personally believe that he has better natural talent and skill than Yovani Gallardo as evident by his 4 pitches and ability to throw in the upper 90's. Where they differ is that Gallardo has excellent control over his pitches and fantastic mental makeup. Gallardo has faltered a bit in his career (most notably against the St. Louis Cardinals) but he has proven time and time again (Opening Day every year, NLDS Game 1 in 2008, NLDS Games 1 and 5 in 2011) that he is a big time pitcher. But this isn't about Gallardo. Peralta can be a #1 or #2 type pitcher if he gets his command worked out (he walks far too many batters) and avoids losing control when shit gets real. If you are thinking Manny Parra right now then you're not alone. While I don't think Peralta is as fucked up in the head as Parra (who admitted that problem on several occasions) it's hard not to make a comparison. Peralta has all the tools to be a top pitcher and the only way to make it happen is to pitch in the big leagues.
I am very excited to see what Peralta can do with a whole season with the Brewers. Although it was just 5 starts last year and 29 innings, he went 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 23 strikeouts. That's a small sample size but it shows that he can put it together when he needs to. He's got the highest amount of potential of all the starters on the Brewers and if they are going to have any success this year than Wily Peralta is going to have a say in that. He's a fun pitcher to watch because when he is on he straight-up baffles hitters with the velocity and movement on his pitches. It's always entertaining to watch the opposition look goofy at the plate swinging and coming up way empty. Peralta has the ability to do that and I wish that I had better news for you but if he doesn't do this on a consistent basis, we are going to be in trouble. Peralta (along with Braun and Axford) is the difference in us winning 82 or 92 games. One of those sits at home watching the playoffs and the other gets to play in them. Which one would you rather be? So no pressure Wily, but we're counting on you to have a big ass year. I know I speak for every single Brewers fan when I say I would rather watch the Brewers play in October than watch another team (duh) and guys like Peralta can determine that. All that I ask is that you watch this kid and get behind him. Stand up and cheer. Clap your ass off. Give him some support and love. He's worth it. And if everything works out as I think it can, Wily Peralta is going to give you one hell of a year and many reasons to love the shit out of him.
2013 Prediction: 10-13 record, 4.21 ERA, 145 innings pitched 131 strikeouts and a hybrid of last year now that teams have figured him out but he'll still have some good gas mileage as the #5 starter.
Fiers is an interesting case because on one hand he had a fantastic season. But on the other hand he struggled big time in September as a result of fatigue and almost lost his rotation spot for this year because of it. His Spring Training this year mirrored the same path. He started off really well and then fell apart near the end. While fatigue can't be blamed this time around the questions remain - can Mike Fiers be an effective starter in the Major Leagues? Right now he is lined up to be the #5 starter which can help take some of the pressure off of him because his only job is to keep the team in the game. As long as he has around 10 wins and a mid 4 ERA at the end of the season, we can all view that as a success. Of course we would like to see him do better than that. Who doesn't want better? My Mom wants me to get a better job so I can afford to pay a woman to marry me so I can give her some grandchildren. Because the only way a woman would ever marry me is if I was rich and my Mom knows this. Let's no kid ourselves here pal. There's ugly and then there is Scott Reck. I'm in my own category. I don't know know what to think about my future just like I don't know what to think about Mike Fiers. I was behind him 100% last year when he came out of nowhere (seriously, when they called him up I was like who? Mike Fiers? I never heard of this guy and I spend a good amount of time getting educated on the future of the Brewers organization) and was one of the best pitchers in baseball for a couple of months. Can he repeat that now that teams have a decent scouting report on him? He doesn't throw hard and tops out around 91 MPH which means that he relies upon location and deception to get hitters out. So far that has worked out for him, but can he continue it? For some reason I think that he can even though I have nothing to back that up. Maybe it's just wishful thinking. If your #5 starter has 10-12 wins with a 4 ERA that means starters 1-4 are doing better and that my friends is a recipe for success. Forget about that green bean casserole that your mother makes. Although that does make for a nice side dish to pass at a potluck dinner it won't help the 2013 Milwaukee Brewers make the playoffs. But Mike Fiers can.
2013 Prediction: n/a. Unfortunately I think his days as a member of the Brewers are over because if he doesn't have his velocity, what does he have? Hopefully a smokin' hot wife...
The whole theme of this post is the difference that a week makes. A week ago we knew that there was something wrong with Mark Rogers but we figured that he would start the season in the bullpen to try and figure out why he had an awful Spring Training (4 starts, 9 innings pitched, 7.00 ERA and an alarming decrease of velocity and control). Because he is out of Minor League Options (he was drafted in 2004) he either had to make the Major League team or be exposed to waivers where another team could claim him. Since the Brewers have invested so much time and money not only in the draft and developing process but also in surgery and rehab, they were going to keep holding on to him as long as possible. He still could be a really good pitcher. He showed signs of that last year when he went 3-1 with a 3.92 ERA in 7 starts with 41 strikeouts in 39 innings. But he is going to opening the 2013 season on the Disabled List until they figure out what is wrong with him. I like everything that I've seen from Rogers when he is healthy but that's been the biggest problem in his career. At this point I don't really have any faith that he can turn it around and help this team out. Sorry. But there just comes a time where you have to be able to pitch to be able to prove your worth. The starting rotation is already 6 deep and the starting pitching at AAA Nashville (Tyler Thornburg, Hiram Burgos and Johnny Hellweg) look ready to take the mound if a spot start is needed. There may not be a spot for Rogers if he ever figures it out. It's a real shame though because after all the injuries and surgeries he's been though I was really rooting for this guy to succeed. I hope he gets healthy and comes back to pitch for the Brewers but if not, then life goes on and I hope for his sake he has plans for life after baseball.
The starting pitching on this team will make or break us. Of course you can probably say that about most teams but it is especially true here because it's the only variable. For the most part you know what you're going to get out of the offense and the bullpen so these dudes will be the difference makers. A lot of things need to go right for this starting rotation. Yovani Gallardo needs to take the next step in his career and dominate. Kyle Lohse needs to be more like he was last year and not like he has been for his whole career. Marco Estrada needs to go deeper into games. Wily Peralta needs to learn how to control his pitches. Mike Fiers needs to be like 1st half Fiers and not 2nd half Fiers. Chris Narveson needs to be healthy. And I'm sure at some point we might even see Tyler Thornburg or Hiram Burgos make an appearance on this team and both of them need to be as good as they have been heralded. And Mark Rogers needs to get back on the field. That's a lot of things that need to happen and I'm sorry to say that all of them need to happen if we want to come close to winning 90 games and flirt with the playoffs again. I wish I could say that it would be easy, but if you look at 2008 (CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Dave Bush) and 2011 (Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke and Randy Wolf) it is the pitching that carried us to the playoffs. Will the names I mentioned above go down in Brewers lore as the ones who carried us to the playoffs in 2013 or will this just be another year (like in 2009, 2010 and 2012) where the offense is outstanding but is ultimately wasted? We'll know in about a month after each pitcher makes 4-5 starts and shakes off the early season rust and makes adjustments. Until then cut these guys some slack and buckle up. This has the potential to be one wicked season.
- pookon -
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